Pick: Nebraska ML -122
Purdue opened the season #1 and even when it was 17-1 you could feel the wheels slowly starting to come off. It might be because the market inflated them knowing the public was going to load up on the preseason #1 team, but Purdue has covered just one of its last nine games.
The Boilers have lost three of five, with all of them coming against Top 40 Ken Pom teams (UCLA, Illinois, Indiana) and two of those were on the road. In its last 10 games, Purdue’s offense - 4th in efficiency this season - is just 17th in the country. Defensively its even worse - they fall to 48th in defensive efficiency during this late January/early February malaise.
How much of the season-long stats were built up off early season success thanks to four seniors? The Boilermakers are one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, and rank 7th in minutes continuity.
Now they go on the road again against a Nebraska team that should be fresh following its week from hell facing two of the best offenses in the country (Michigan, Illinois) and a road trip to Rutgers. Purdue has struggled to get margin offensively, not covering at USC, UCLA and Indiana.
The Ken Pom model has this 74-71 Nebraska and Bart Torvik’s model has 73-70.
Nebraska is one of the best stories of the season - a smart, patient offense that thrives on the drive and kick thanks to shooters like Sam Hoiberg (41 percent on 3s) and Pryce Sandfort (40 percent). Unless Purdue is able to tighten up the defense suddenly, this is going to be a tough night in Lincoln.
This is the start of a tough stretch for the Boilers, as they travel to streaking Iowa Saturday and then are at home for mighty Michigan.