I’ve been working with an AI agent to build me a World Cup betting model. It assigned a power rating to all 48 teams, analyzed all the matches and ran thousands of simulations. It has been spitting out best bets, adjusting for injury and even stats in recently friends, and I’ve been posting some of the matches the model loves. Recent injuries have mucked up games, but such is life. Just remember - the public money bet globally on the World Cup dwarfs sharp money, and as a result, the underdogs have massive value. Two x-factors I haven’t seen talked about much are weather and coaching. It’s difficult for the model to quantify both.
The bigger plays I have posted about separately with a breakdown. Here are the Golden Boot predictions. Here are some smaller plays the model has identified.
South Africa vs Mexico under 2.5 goals (-131)
South Africa vs Mexico, Draw +320
Tunisia vs Sweden, Draw +230
Tunisia vs Sweden, under 2 goals +110
Algeria ML vs Argentina +743
Algeria Draw vs Argentina +375
Senegal ML vs France +623
Senegal Draw vs France +348
Over 4 goals Spain vs Cape Verde +148
Over 4.25 goals Germany vs Curacao -104
To reach the quarterfinals
USA +375 (*not model-related; that’s just me)
Japan +350
Ecuador +490
Meet in the Final
Germany vs England +2220
Spain vs Argentina +1300
Argentina vs Mexico +11670
England vs France +1210
Germany vs Spain +1660
To win the World Cup
Germany +1499
England +715
Brazil +950
Stage of elimination
Mexico quarterfinals +675