Pick: Houston -24
This is the massive number for a team that is only 5-4 in their last nine games, but i’ve got to lay it with the Cougars.
Houston annually destroys teams in the opening round under Kelvin Sampson:
2025: 78-40 vs SIE
2024: 84-46 vs Longwood
2023: 63-52 vs Northern Kentucky
2022: 82-68 vs UAB
2021: 87-56 vs Cleveland State
2019: 84-55 vs Georgia State
That’s 5-1 ATS in the last six seasons (non-cover vs Northern Kentucky). And when we drill down on that recent funk to close the season, all four losses were to tourney teams (at Iowa State and Kansas; vs Arizona, vs Arizona at the Big 12 tournament).
Idaho faced one Ken Pom Top 100 team all season. The Vandals got smacked at Notre Dame, 80-65 in December. Going from facing low majors for 2.5 months to facing an elite defense with a lottery pick of a point guard is a recipe for disaster.
The Big Sky is a woeful 3-40 in the history of the tournament, with a double digit loss in 15 of the last 18 tournaments. Houston could have a horrible shooting night - they rank last in the country in percentage of shots taken at the rim - and sleepwalk to a 24 point win. The 3-point variance for Houston makes me nervous going forward, and could bite them against Illinois in what might be the best Sweet 16 game.