Pick: Akron +8.5
Everyone loves to pick a 12-5 upset, and this is one of the most trendy underdog picks in the field. The line opened at Red Raiders -10.5 and has been bet down to -8.5.
Texas Tech was headed toward a 2 or 3 seed before star JT Toppin went down for the season with an ACL injury. An All-American, he was the heartbeat of their team. I knew my Texas Tech futures title tickets were cooked. The Red Raiders were able to peel off three straight wins after his injury, but then lost to TCU, BYU and Iowa State. They still have two gunners in Christian Anderson (42 percent on 3s) and Donovan Atwell (45 percent on 3s, 16th in the country). But they rarely get to the foul line and post-Toppin, and don’t crash the offensive boards.
If the 3s are falling, sure, Texas Tech will roll. The game is being played at Benchmark International Arena. It’s the home of the Tampa Bay Lightning. I can’t find data on how teams have shot in the arena in recent years because basketball games are rarely played there. The last time it hosted men’s NCAA games was 2011. The women played the final four there in 2025 and all three games were massive blowouts: 85-51, 74-57 and 82-59. For what it’s worth, three-point shooting in the final: 8-33.
Akron coach John Groce has fared well in NCAA Tournament games - 7-3 ATS, and led Ohio to an upset of Georgetown in 2010. These Zips have won 19 of 20. But none of those opponents were top 125 per Ken Pom. In fact, the only Top 100 teams they’ve faced were Purdue (lost by 18), Yale (lost by 3) and Miami of Ohio (lost by 3).
Like Texas Tech, Akron loves the three. They’re 14th in the country from deep, and four players shoot 37% or better at a high volume. I’m considering a small money line play on the Zips here to pull the outright upset.