Pick: DUKE -10 (-120)
The Blue Devils survived what would have been the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history against Siena on Thursday. Duke trailed by 13 with 17 minutes left and was still down five with seven minutes left. Ultimately, Siena ran out of gas as it didn’t substitute once.
Ken Pom’s model has this 76-63; Bart Torvik 76-64. Yet the line opened Duke -10.5. I’ll take the juiced 10.
Duke is undeniably vulnerable due to the injuries, as it started three freshman and only played two reserves (a freshman and a sophomore) in the first round game. Duke is the 2nd youngest team in the field in experience (310th in the country) and looked rattled multiple times against Siena.
But what they lack in experience they have in height - Duke is the 2nd tallest team in the country after Illinois; TCU ranks 322nd. The Horned Frogs don’t have anyone on the roster taller than 6-foot-8. Duke grabbed 16 offensive rebounds against Siena and they should match or top that number here.
TCU’s defensive pressure befuddled teams at times this season, but Ohio State only turned it over seven times. TCU led by 15 and then couldn’t make a shot - a major issue this season - and found itself down by five in the second half. The most impressive part of the win was holding Ohio State scoring machine Bruce Thornton to 10 points in 40 minutes, and he only made 1-of-4 two-pointers and 2-of-5 three’s. The 10 points were the 2nd fewest he scored all season.
But once Duke takes away TCU’s interior offense - Punch and Edmonds are their guys - it’ll be interesting too see where TCU scores from. The Horned Frogs are 211th on 3-point shooting; 200th in 2-point shooting, and 249th in FT shooting. Duke is an elite defensive team, though their stats are slightly skewed due to the loss of 6-foot-11 shot blocker Patrick Ngongba.
The public will fade Duke after the embarrassing showing against Siena. I’ll gladly take a depressed price and trust the nerves are out of their system and they coast here.