Pick: Michigan -7 (-120)
Getting greedy going with another big favorite? Probably. We know Duke vs UConn is going to be a major sweat and I’ll roll the dice for a 5th straight winner with the Wolverines. Michigan is 3-0 ATS in the tourney.
The Vols have had a great run to the Elite 8 for the 3rd straight year under Rick Barnes. They lost by 19 to Houston last year, and by six to Purdue two years ago in the Dalton Knecht (37 points) vs Zach Edey (40 points) classic.
Tennessee caught some breaks in this tournament, facing a suspect 3-seed in Virginia (1 good win outside the weak ACC), and then Iowa State without its best player (Jefferson). They can’t shoot (175th on three’s; 149th on two’s) and their lone path to victory is crashing the offensive glass and wearing you down inside.
Michigan has a dominant front court and has already seen better bigs (Duke - narrow loss; Illinois - big win). Here’s how Michigan has done against the SEC this season. Remember, it’s a conference notorious for the lack of defense:
Beat Auburn 102-72
Beat Alabama 90-77
Does Michigan top 80 here? The team total is 77.
Florida is 6th in defensive efficiency; Tennessee is 11th. You’ve got to go all the way down to Kentucky at 28th to find the next good SEC defense. The Wildcats gave up 82 points to Iowa State.
While we’re on the SEC, it went 1-3 in the Sweet 16, with losses by Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas. Big Ten teams Purdue and Michigan beat SEC teams in the Sweet 16. And don’t forget Iowa over Florida in the second round.
The biggest concern for me here is 6-foot-10 Tennessee freshman Nate Ament, a projected lottery pick. He gets to the line with ease, he’s a respectable 34 percent from deep, and he’s exploded for 29 points three times - vs Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma. He did, however struggle against the Illinois size (4-of-11, 9 points). If he somehow gets Yaxel Lendeborg into foul trouble - a rarity, as he’s only had four fouls once this season (vs Wisconsin, a loss) - the Michigan offense could struggle. The guess here is Dusty May starts Lendeborg on lesser offensive threats like Okpara or Estrella to avoid the foul trouble.
We saw both Elite 8 games Saturday feature a ton of second half free throws. Should that happen here … Michigan only ranks 118th in the country in FT shooting. Tennessee is horrible at the line: 287th.