Pick: UNC +2000
The value is largely gone in the “Big 4” - Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida - to win the National championship. Those four have the inside track on a #1 seed and it’s likely that Duke and Michigan will be 1-2 overall by virtue of the Blue Devils win head-to-head.
Is there value anywhere else?
You have to turn to the metrics. Ken Pom is the Bible of college basketball, and his data has been hugely influential in finding the champion over the last decade.
In the last 24 years, every title winner has been Top 25 in Ken Pom heading into the tournament. The only two teams lurking outside the Top 25 currently that are mildly intriguing are North Carolina (28) and Wisconsin (30).
UNC has pedestrian metrics (32nd in offense, 40th in defense) which don’t inspire confidence, but they have been without star freshman and potential top five pick Caleb Wilson for the last seven games (5-2). He’s expected back for the NCAA Tournament recovering from a broken bone in his left (non-shooting) hand.
UNC beat Kansas in November, and Duke in February. They don’t shoot the 3 well (184th) or free throws (317th!) good enough to be a legit title contender. Wilson, though, is a transcendent talent who gets to the line whenever he wants (68th in the country, terrific for a 6-foot-10 wing), is a tenacious offensive rebounder, and a major factor on the back line of the defense.
Wisconsin (18th in offensive efficiency, 53rd in defense) has boom/bust vibes. It has one of the best wins of the season at Michigan (thanks to 15-of-33 from deep), and also beat Illinois on the road (16-of-36 from 3), and topped Michigan State.
The defense though, is ghastly. They don’t turn anyone over (321st) and don’t generate steals (306th). But they could scare someone because 51% of their shots are 3’s. Greg Gard hasn’t been out of the first weekend since 2017.
UNC is +2000 to reach the Final 4 (Fanduel). It feels highly unlikely UNC would be put in Duke’s region. The committee knows better. They’ve only met once in the tournament (2022) and it came in the Final 4. Earlier this season, UNC’s size gave Duke issues, and it likely would be a similar situation with Michigan and Illinois. I’m not totally sold on the likely 3/4 seeds (Connecticut, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Virginia, Gonzaga). UNC’s potential for a March run comes down to if Caleb Wilson returns at 90 percent of what he was, and by the 2nd weekend he’s at 100.
Wisconsin is +3500 and much more of a dart throw. The Badgers more likely project as a team that loses its first game as opposed to makes a run to the Final 4.