In the first week of the season, after watching the Spurs destroy the Mavericks on the road - Wembanyama scored 40 points - then win at New Orleans and win at home against Brooklyn and Toronto, I instantly bet the Spurs to win the NBA Cup. They tried hard. And they had the player who was very clearly the most dominant player in the league. The Spurs lost to the Knicks in the NBA Cup final, but it was clear they were going to be great.
At the start of the playoffs, I picked the Knicks to meet the Spurs, and I had San Antonio winning the title. I’ve changed my tune, a bit. Here are three bets for the NBA Finals:
Game 1, 1st quarter San Antonio Spurs -1 (-131)
In three home games against the Thunder, the Spurs were +27 in the first quarter. Totally dominant at home, hitting three’s and locking down defensively. The Knicks haven’t played since May 23rd. While they certainly could come back and win the game, the Spurs should come out juiced up off the win over the Thunder. The last quarter they played they shot 11-of-18 from the field and hit six three-pointers. In the 4th quarter. On the road.
The Knicks have faced beat-up Philly and a good-not-great Cavs team. There will be a shock to the system, like when you haven’t seen Lamar Jackson and then all of a sudden you have to face his speed.
MVP: OG Anunoby +4000
The regular season and the playoffs are a different sport, but you can definitely take things away from the matchups this season. Anunoby was excellent in one win (28 points, 9 rebounds, 5-10 on three’s) and struggled badly in a loss (3-for-10 shooting, 9 points, team worst -25). The 3rd meeting was the most telling - in March, when the Spurs had won 11 in a row - because Anunoby guarded Wembanyama for large stretches and the Frenchman struggled. He had seven turnovers and drifted to the perimeter and shot poorly (1-of-7 on three’s). The Knicks won by 25.
Big wings can give the Spurs problems. Deni Avdija in round one and Jaden McDaniels in round two. The Thunder don’t really have that, and certainly not with J-Dub injured. Anunoby could have a solid offensive series - 18-9-4 - but his defense could swing the MVP award his way like it did for Andre Iguodala in 2015 with the Warriors. OG is not going to stop Wemby, but keeping him under 30 in every game could be enough.
Karl Anthony Towns over 1.5 three’s (+113)
Everyone is predicting Towns will float more on the perimeter in an attempt to drag Wemby away from the basket. But that’s assuming Wemby will be anywhere near Towns. The guess here is Wemby will spend most of his time in the vicinity of Josh Hart. But the role reversal of Towns as a facilitator has opened things up for the entire offense. The Spurs have a terrific defensive coach in Sean Sweeney and he will surely have something cooked up for that look, thus making the Knicks adjust the offense that destroyed the East.
Towns is shooting 48 percent from three on a lower volume than the regular season, but if the Spurs decide Brunson won’t beat them - like they did with SGA - Towns is too good of an offensive player not to be a major factor.