Argentina vs Egypt
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Argentina was a big favorite (-290) and then it increasingly shrunk (-250) due to some money on Egypt before re-popping today (-276). The obvious handicap is both teams are tired after having to go to extra time last week - Argentina against Cape Verde and Egypt against Australia. This game is indoors so the East Coast heat wave won’t matter.
The model likes under 2.5 goals as Egypt plays physical and low scoring games (1-1 three times and a 3-1 win over New Zealand). Egypt has an xG differential of -0.07, which ranks 23rd; Argentina is +1.53 ranking 8th.
It’s possible that Cape Verde threw such a scare into Argentina, it will not be caught napping again by a big underdog. Argentina was so upset with how it played that match, manager Lionel Scaloni made three changes to the lineup, with Julian Alvarez returning up front, Paredes replacing Almada in the midfield for more defense, and Tagliafico in for Medina.
Four of the six Round of 16 games so far have had a scoreless first half. The other two were wacky - England 2-1, and Belgium 2-1. This feels like Argentina 1-0 or 2-0.
Colombia vs Switzerland
NOTE: Do not bet on this game without seeing the Switzerland lineup due to reported injuries.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Pick: Colombia ML +128
The model loved Switzerland getting a goal here as the best bet of the week. And then came news late Monday that several starters cut training short but the team did not provide specifics. The biggest news which killed this bet is 20-year old budding star Johan Manzambi (three goals) is OUT with a knee injury. Two others - Ruben Vargas (two goals) and Dijibril Sow are listed as highly doubtful.
You cannot bet Switzerland.
There’s real hype around Colombia, which dispatched Ghana in dominant fashion, holding them to a paltry 0.27 xG in a game that could have been 3-0. The public loves Colombia here, but before the injuries, model gives Switzerland a 37.3% chance to win; the market only implies 27.4%. That’s a 9.9% edge - around what Belgium was getting Monday against USA.
Colombia plays terrific defense and seems content to score and play defense and walk away with the victory as opposed to continuing an offensive assault and running up the score. With a Copa America rematch against Argentina looming in the QF, Colombia won’t take any chances and likely sub off offense for defense if leading in the final 20 minutes.