Pick: 4-team ML parlay Duke, Purdue, Michigan, Arizona (+169)
Big favorites have cleaned up the last two years in the tournament. The only ones that went down opening weekend were Wisconsin and Florida.
Last year in the Sweet 16, Houston (-8.5) was the only favorite to nearly lose, barely topping Purdue in a tremendous finish. Underdogs were 4-4 ATS in the Sweet 16, but favorites were 8-0 straight up.
While underdogs could keep things close again this year, I do like these four to win:
Duke vs St. John’s: Holding Duke in the Calcutta, I’m extremely nervous about a freshman point guard going up against full court pressure that caused a veteran Kansas team to vomit the ball up 16 times. If five days aren’t enough for Jon Scheyer to cook up a press break, Duke doesn’t deserve to win.
St. John’s is one of the hottest teams in the country, but quality wins are scarce. And think about this - it took a career-night from deep from Bryce Hopkins (6-of-10 three’s), and a layup at the buzzer from a guy who hadn’t scored all night to beat a team it led virtually the entire game.
Toss in Duke rim protector Patrick Ngongba returning to the lineup - he wasn’t great against TCU with four turnovers and four points in 13 minutes - and the public loving St. John’s here, and it feels like the Blue Devils defense prevails.
Purdue vs Texas: The Boilermakers have the hottest shooter in the country (Fletcher Loyer, 19-for-35 on 3s in his last five games), a brutal matchup for Texas in wing Trey Kaufman-Renn, and the post-player needed to neutralize the Texas advantage at center (senior Oscar Cluff). It did appear as if Purdue was wearing down in the second half against Miami after playing six games in 11 days, but Loyer (24 points) and TKR (19 points) carried. Braden Smith has quietly been on the struggle bus: If you remove the romp over Queens, here’s what he’s done in the last 5 games: 3-for-21 on three’s, and three single digit scoring nights. Texas had a hot week, winning three games, but BYU and Gonzaga had key players out injured, and the Longhorns barely survived NC State.
Michigan vs Alabama: The Wolverines have three losses. One was a close one to Duke; against Purdue they had 15 turnovers; the other was when Wisconsin made 15-of-33 three-pointers. The Tide can be an elite 3-point shooting team - see their 19 triples vs the Red Raiders Sunday. This spot feels similar to last year’s Elite 8 game - after Alabama lit up BYU for 25 three’s in the Sweet 16, the Tide faced Duke and gave up 85 points. The Crimson Tide (still) play no defense, and Michigan should win convincingly.
Arizona vs Arkansas: Left it for last because I’m terrified of Darius Acuff, who I think is a top 5 lock in the NBA draft this June. Can’t wait to watch him go up against Big 12 player of the year Jaden Bradley and 2026 lottery pick Brayden Burries. The problem for Arkansas is defensively, it won’t be able to stop the Wildcats. Center Nick Pringle hasn’t been healthy enough to play in the tournament, and that leaves John Calipari with just Trevon Brazile to handle Koa Peat and 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas (11 points, 14 rebounds vs Utah State). Wouldn’t be surprised by a 2-3 zone defense or something gimmicky to force the Wildcats to shoot from the perimeter. At this point, everyone knows they rank 363rd in 3-point field goal attempts. If Acuff drops 40 Arkansas can win, but with these defensive guards and the bigs behind him, I’m not sure he can pull that off.