It’ll be impossible to match the madness of Monday’s World Cup games. One game winner in the 95th minute - which killed our Japan/Brazil under - and then two decided in penalty kicks. Morocco salvaged the draw with a 91st minute header and then won in PKs. Today, there’s no play on Mexico/Ecuador but the model does really like Mexico to have a clean sheet (+108) as it hasn’t conceded a goal yet and has a massive home field advantage. I have too many smart soccer people telling me Ecuador is gonna pull the upset so I’m passing. I know, I should trust the machine over the humans.
Norway vs Ivory Coast
Pick: Both teams to score -139
Pick: Norway ML +112
Despite only playing its starters for two matches, Norway ranked 14th in xG differential in group play (Ivory Coast was 25th). How much of that was beating a very bad Iraq team and a Senegal squad that squeaked into the knockouts?
Ivory Coast lost a brutal result to Ecuador in extra time in the opener, then led Germany for 35 minutes before the Germans got the equalizer and then the game winner in stoppage time.
If Norway jumps ahead early, does Ivory Coast have the firepower to rally? Seems as if Odilon Kossounou (Bayer Leverkusen) will have the task of marking the great Erling Haaland. His size advantage (6-foot-4 vs 6-foot) should be a big edge for Norway on set pieces. Kossounou will have help from budding star Ousmane Diomande. And expect CDM Ibrahim Sangare also to be in Haaland’s vicinity all night.
Ivory Coast did concede a 1.89 xG to Germany, and seven shots on goal. The Norway offense, led by Odegaard and Haaland, should be able to create numerous chances. Norway is rested and playing indoors, heat won’t be an issue.
The model likes Norway ML; I tossed in the both teams to score because I don’t trust the Norway defense.
France vs Sweden
Pick: France -1.5 (-123)
There’s no value on the money line, as 97 percent of the bets are coming in on France, and oddsmakers can’t move it high enough. Nobody wants Sweden here, and rightfully so - facing a good Netherlands attack, they conceded five goals. They could generate no offense. The Sweden offense - so good in a rout of Tunisia - generated 0.61 xG against Japan in a tie. Sure, they just needed a tie to advance, but it was still a very meek effort.
France is a machine … but to play the other side, it looked ordinary for a half before rolling past Senegal. Forget the Iraq game. And then they faced the Norway backups. So there is an argument that yes, France is great, but it hasn’t faced anyone good yet. But then again, is Sweden good?
Amazingly, France has only lost once in its last nine matches (Ivory Coast, 2-1 a Friendly), and in seven of the other eight matches they won by 2+ goals. They’re winning this, but can they do it by two goals?