Tough Tuesday to end the Round of 16 for the model, whiffing on Colombia and totally missing on Argentina. That’s two straight whiffs on Argentina, which appears to be leaking oil.
France vs Morocco
Under 2.5 goals (-113)
France ML -167
Rain is in the forecast for Gillette Stadium - 60% chance during the game. The wet pitch could slow things down, which would help Morocco. These two met in Qatar in the semifinals in 2022 and France’s speed - particularly Mbappe - killed Morocco. They scored in the fifth minute, and then tackled on one late.
Reports are that Morocco’s top scorer, Ismael Saibari, has missed the last two days of training and won’t be available. He’s their top creative attacker. Without him, they did score three times against Canada - but it was on a whopping four shots as they struggled to cobble an offense together.
Morocco has been a cash cow for the model as an underdog against Brazil and Netherlands, and then covering as a small favorite against Canada. Morocco has held three of its five opponents scoreless.
It’s a classic offensive/defensive showdown. Interestingly, the model says the under 2.5 is the best bet in this match given the juice on France. Before the World Cup kicked off, Spain was considered the favorite. Then Spain tied Cape Verde (in hindsight, not a bad result) and France blew teams out 3-1, 3-0, and 4-1. Everyone loves offense so now France is the favorite.
Of course, when it comes to knockout rounds, there’s a “France tax” and they went under against Sweden and under against Paraguay. Toss in the low block defense employed by Paraguay - Morocco does a mid-block, but better - and you’ve got the recipe for France struggling here.
The model likes France up to -180 ML, as that’s a breakeven win rate of 64.3%. The under of 2.5 (-113) needs only 54% to break even.
Would be understandable if France was caught looking ahead to Spain - a team it lost to 2-1 in July 2024 and 5-4 in June 2025.