Pick: Bears -1.5 (Circa)
The look-ahead line here was Packers -2. That was before the Bears officially announced Tyson Bagent as the starter against the Jets. Sunday night, after the Bears throttled the Jets and the Packers beat but did not cover against winless Tampa, the new line was Bears -1.5 at Circa.
It was trending toward -3 Tuesday night before a brutal injury report for the Bears Wednesday dropped it back to -2.5. You don’t want to overreact, but three starters on the OL did not practice (plus LT Braxton Jones went on the IR after getting hurt against the Eagles), along with both starting RBs. The model did find Ben Johnson quotes where he told the media after running 89 plays Sunday, it impacted his practice plans. If all of these players return Thursday, this line should bump back toward three.
If you think this number has gone too far at it’s time for Tyson Bagent to turn into a pumpkin, the Packers 1st half could be a play. Here are the halftime scores from last season’s three meetings: 14-3 Packers (week 14), 6-0 Packers (week 16), 21-3 Packers (playoff game). The Packers defense - led by Jeff Hafley - really kept Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams in check in all three first halves.
But then the Bears (with Caleb Williams) won the 2nd halves 18-14, 16-10, and 28-6. Hafley is now in Miami; the Packers DC is Jonathan Gannon.
Ben Johnson offenses have matched up with Gannon defenses twice. Johnson was in Detroit in 2022 and in a 38-35 win over Philly, the Lions rushed for 181 yards (144 from De’Andre Swift). In 2024 the Lions met the Cardinals, and again it was the ground game that Gannon couldn’t stop, as Detroit rushed for 187 yards.
When you take into account what the Bears just did to the Jets (54 carries, 232 yards), it’s safe to assume Johnson is resting his line and ground game expecting to go for another 175+ rushing. Green Bay lost tackling machine Edge Cooper (MLB) last week to an Achilles. He leads the Packers in sacks and tackles for loss.