Portugal vs Croatia
Pick: Both teams to score -134
Pick: Draw: +273
Croatia’s porous defense will struggle to contain the Portugal loaded offense. Yes, Portugal has struggled at times - outside of the 5-0 romp of Uzbekistan - going scoreless against Colombia and only netting one early vs Congo. The combined 1.58 xG is embarrassing for a squad with Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, and Joao Felix. I didn’t mention Cristiano Ronaldo because frankly, he has been in poor form outside of the win against a vastly inferior opponent.
Croatia’s offense has scored five goals in three goals, including two against England and then two against a frisky Ghana team.
The model likes offense here, with a strong lean to Portugal over 1.5 goals, even with the likelihood of Croatia sitting back and plays for extra time.
This will be the final game in the World Cup for one of two colossal stars in the sport - Luka Modric or Cristiano Ronaldo. Modric lost in the Final in 2018; Ronaldo lost in the semifinals in 2006.
Despite two forgettable performances from Ronaldo so far, the model got a little sentimental (ha!) and thinks a Ronaldo anytime goal at +120 could be a play.