Spain vs Austria
Pick: Spain -1.5 (112)
Pick an exact score: Spain 2-0 (+559)
Two big attacking injuries for Spain as Nico Williams (adductor strain) is out, as is Yeremy Pino.
Spain didn’t concede a goal in group play, and owns the tournament’s #2 xG differential (+1.60). Austria, meanwhile, has let in six goals in three games. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where this game is close. That being said, Spain hasn’t look totally crisp with all the lineup movement (Yamal came on as a sub in the opener; Williams has missed time).
Austria needed a miracle goal late against Algeria just to get here. It actually played Argentina fairly tight, only permitting a Messi goal in the first half and then one in stoppage time. Still, Argentina’s 2.36 xG and 12 shots show the game wasn’t that close.
Austria has the 8th oldest roster in this World Cup; Spain checks in at 28. Will the travel - West Coast to Dallas to Kansas City back to the West Coast - and chasing around Spain all day wear the Austrians down?
There’s some concern Spain is looking ahead to a potential date with France in the SF, as viral videos have gone around this week with the players getting grilled about the matchup.
The model finds no value in paying for Spain on the ML, so Spain -1.5 goals is the play. It’s not quite a dart throw, but Spain to win by the exact score of 2-0 has value. It is the board’s shortest correct score (+559), priced shorter than a 1-0 Spain win. The model also notes the potential of a parlay of Spain -1.5 and Both Teams to Score NO (-164)