Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Both teams vastly exceeded expectations in their opener, with the USA dominating what the market has as a coin-flip game against Paraguay 4-1, and then Australia blanking favored Turkey 2-0.
It seems highly unlikely either team will duplicate their opening game offensive performance. The model gives a slight lean to Australia Draw No Bet simply because there’s a tsunami of money on the USA, but also notes there is value on the under after all the goals last Friday.
Difficult to bet the US without knowing whether or not Christian Pulisic will play. His calf situation has had him practicing on the side, not with the team. Given the opening win and a tough last match against Turkey, perhaps the US brings Pulisic off the bench here if necessary for the final 30 minutes as opposed to starting him.
The teams met in October. 2025, a time during which the USA was tinkering with the player pool and lineups. The US won, 2-1. Also, Christian Pulisic got hurt in the 31st minute and did not return. Two goals were scored by Haji Wright, and Cristian Roldan notched both assists. Neither played against Paraguay in the opener.
The same could be said in that match for Australia, as their top three performers against Turkey (via FotMob) did not suit up against the Americans.
This game will hinge upon whether or not the US can crack the Australia deep five back, essentially parking the bus all game long trying not to concede a goal, and then hoping for quick-strike counters. Paraguay’s defense was more ballyhooed coming in but only played with four at the back. Did the early own goal open the floodgates, or did the USA just have a fantastic game plan with two months to prepare? Yes.
Given a week to do the same against a heavier defensive scheme, what wrinkles will Mauricio Pochettino have?
In two matches with the US in 2025, Pochettino faced Canada and Panama. Both played a deep and compact defense, similar to Australia. The US lost both matches and scored just one goal. It’ll be a major shock if this is another offensive explosion as both teams play close and tight, not to lose, similar to Mexico vs South Korea.
I’ll go USA 1-0.