The model has had an incredible World Cup, and this test run will hopefully lead to even bigger returns in the NFL. I’m personally approaching the semifinals differently because of futures (which are listed below). With plenty outstanding and a chalky World Cup, I won’t be risking much here.
FRANCE vs SPAIN
Futures bets outstanding
France wins World Cup +130
France wins World Cup +815 (from December)
Spains win World Cup +450 (from December)
Pick the finalists
Spain vs Argentina +1300
England vs France +1210
Model Pick: Spain +227
Personal add:
Yamal anytime scorer +231
The model has significant value on Spain here. France opened +130 ML and after a day, 79% of bets were on France. On the “to advance” line, France opened -144. The lopsided public money did nothing to the line, simply nudging it to -148.
The model reads that as a reverse line movement tell - the sports books aren’t afraid of the France money, and they’re comfortable needing Spain.
At Pinnacle, considered the sharpest sports book, the line has actually moved toward Spain over the weekend, and it’ll be telling if there is any gameday movement.
Pre-tournament PELE ratings had Spain 94 and France 91 - the clear better team was Spain. But after seven games, the public has fallen in love with the juggernaut that is the France offense, and they are backing Mbappe and company in this spot.
The last two times the teams have met, Spain has won. 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal and then 5-4 in the Nationals League semifinal. Dembele and Mbappe played in both, but Olise and Doue didn’t play in the 2024 match.
Does De la Fuente simply have Deschamps’ number? The Spain players sound confident, despite the fact that nobody has been able to stop this France offense. And Spain does have the single best defensive midfielder in this tournament, Rodri. He leads the World Cup in distance covered, and also in most accurate passes. (Second is his teammate, Pau Cubarsi.)
Rodri also leads the World Cup in high-speed running actions (945) and he’s logged 228 sprints. His ability to cover ground should neutralize the France attack, or at least slow it down.
France has the explosive feel of a dominant college basketball team - ESPN noted that France scored three times in 30 minutes against Senegal; three goals in 25 minutes against Norway’s backups; three times in 29 minutes against Sweden and twice in six minutes against Morocco.
Neither team has trailed in the World Cup.
This feels destined for extra time, and perhaps PKs.