No bet for me or the model on USA vs Turkey despite going 2-0 on USA games so far. The model thinks the game will be a draw, but with the US likely to sit four of five of their best players, and a Turkey team out for blood after getting embarrassed in two games and already eliminated, I’m staying away.
Ivory Coast vs Curacao
Ivory Coast -1.5 (-200)
Ange-Yoan Bonny anytime goal -107
Curacao has been eliminated and scored one early goal vs Germany and nothing since. Their goalie exceeded all expectations with a World Cup record 15 saves in a fortunate draw against Ecuador. He won’t duplicate that. And they won’t hunker down and play for a tie because it gets them nowhere. But it doesn’t have much offense, anyway.
Ivory Coast needs a win to advance, and as such the ML price is elevated and stripped of value. Ivory Coast scored late to beat Ecuador, and pushed Germany before conceding late and losing 2-1. This is a dangerous team that beat France in a friendly 2-1 earlier this month (yes, Mbappe, Olise, Tchouameni and basically everyone played).
Bonny’s market is strange. He didn’t play a single second in World Cup qualifying for Ivory Coast. He was with the France under 21 national team. His first game with Ivory Coast was the friendly against France, then he came off the bench against Ecuador, then he started vs Germany. The trend line is obvious - he’s a budding star (Inter Milan) and the coach loves him.
Germany vs Ecuador
Germany -1.25 (+125)
Germany’s coach says they will play their starters, which is curious given they clinched the group. With Wirtz and Musiala on the pitch, and Deniz Undav starting (two goals vs Ivory Coast), this is an offensive machine. Feels like - go get us a couple goals early and we’ll switch things up at half.
Ecuador is down bad, having not scored a goal in two games (one of three teams to accomplish that). Their World Cup is over. They have zero wins in their last six matches. Logically, you cannot play your heavy defensive scheme and not even try to generate offense. The moment Ecuador attempts to push forward, Germany should pounce. The only concern is if this is somehow 0-0 at half and Germany subs off its stars, and they just play for a tie.
Sweden vs Japan
Draw +255
Both teams to score YES (-150)
Loser of this game sets themself up for a difficult Round of 32 match as the 3rd place finisher. Sweden went from a 5-1 win to a 5-1 loss and their defense is in tatters. Feels like a conservative game between two teams with suspect defenses.
The desperation from Sweden should be evident, opening themselves up for counters from a good Japan offensive attack.
Problem is, reports are that Japan is likely to rest multiple starters. This could be similar to Morocco, which pulled a couple integral players and gave up two goals to Haiti. One report has Japan with four players making a first career World Cup start. With three defensive anchors likely to sit (Itakura, Tomiyasu, Ito), the Sweden attack could have a lot of success.